DECISION INTELLIGENCE ENGINE · v1.4

Decompose any decision
into a tree of probabilities.

SimpleDecider runs your choices through expected-value math, Monte Carlo simulation, and weighted scoring — so you stop relying on gut and start seeing the shape of every option.

Probability facts
500+
Models
EV · MC · WSM
Sources
CDC · NHTSA · NCI · SSA
DECISION_TREE.runjob_offer_2026.tree
DECISIONNew job offer?AcceptEV = +92kStayEV = +54kThrive · promotion in 18 mo+180kSteady · neutral fit+60kLayoff in 12 mo-90kInternal promo path+120kStatus quo+40kStagnation · reorg-30k
nodes: 9edges: 8solver: backward-inductionSOLVED
02 / SIMULATION

Roll the dice 10,000 times. See every world.

A single expected value hides the shape of risk. Monte Carlo runs your decision through thousands of randomized futures and shows you the distribution — so you can see not just what's likely, but what could go wrong.

monte_carlo.simulateN = 2,000 trials · seed 7
$0 · break-evenP5 -2P50 43P95 92-100k-50k0k+50k+100k+150k
PARAMETERS
RESULT
Mean+44.0k
Median (P50)+43.3k
P5 worst case-1.7k
P95 best case+92.2k
P(loss)6.0%
03 / SCORING

Score by what you care about.
Watch winners shift in real time.

A weighted scoring matrix isn't just a spreadsheet — it's a lens. Slide the criteria you care about, and the whole landscape changes. The radar shows option shapes; the matrix reveals the math.

radar.compare3 options · 5 criteria
PayGrowthStabilityMissionWLB
Job A · StartupJob B · BigCoJob C · Remote
WEIGHTS · drag to retune
RANKING
#1Job C · Remote6.80
#2Job A · Startup6.65
#3Job B · BigCo6.60
04 / DECOMPOSITION

See the shape of every choice.

Every option has a silhouette — a stack of weighted contributions across the criteria you care about. Compare three options side-by-side, hover any block to highlight its peers, and let the engine surface the patterns hiding in the totals.

decompose.shape3 silhouettes · 5 criteriaLIVE
Pay1.20
Growth2.25
Stability0.60
Mission1.60
WLB1.00
Job A · Startup
6.65 / 10
Pay1.80
Growth1.25
Stability1.35
Mission0.80
WLB1.40
Job B · BigCo
6.60 / 10
Pay1.40
Growth1.50
Stability0.90
Mission1.20
WLB1.80
Job C · Remote
6.80 / 10
RETUNE WEIGHTS
CLUE · DOMINANT AXIS

Growth drives this decision more than any other criterion — accounting for 25% of total weighted contribution across all three options.

▸ derived · 3 options × 5 criteria
CLUE · BEST FIT

At your current weights, Job C · Remote wins by Δ0.15 — its silhouette is taller because it concentrates value in the criteria you weight highest.

▸ Σ(wᵢ · sᵢ) · normalized to 1
CLUE · BIGGEST GAP

The widest spread between options sits on Growth — a Δ of 1.00weighted points. If you're uncertain about how much you value Growth, run sensitivity here first.

Job C · Remote is the most balanced silhouette overall
CALIBRATED AGAINSTBLS · job tenureGlassdoor · comp bandsSHRM · WLB index
05 / DATA

The real odds, connected.

500+ probability facts pulled from CDC, NHTSA, NCI, SSA, NWS, BLS, and IRS — wired into every decision template. Hover a node to feel the magnitude.

probability_graph.live9 of 500+ shown · sources verifiedSTREAMING
Car crash · life1 : 93NHTSACancer dx (men)1 : 2NCIMarriage → divorce1 : 2.4CDCHome appreciation 5yr1 : 1.4BLSJob change · 4yr1 : 2BLSIRS audit1 : 277IRSStartup → unicorn1 : 1538CB InsightsPlane crash1 : 11MNTSBLightning · life1 : 15,300NWS
06 / METHOD

Four steps. Compounding clarity.

  1. 01
    Frame
    What are you actually deciding?

    Define the question and generate at least 3 real alternatives — not "do it" vs "don't".

  2. 02
    Score
    Weight what matters to you

    Pick criteria, slide their weights, rate each option. The matrix does the math.

  3. 03
    Simulate
    Map the uncertainty

    Assign probabilities and payoffs. Run Monte Carlo to see the full distribution of outcomes.

  4. 04
    Commit
    Decide & log your reasoning

    Record your call before knowing the result. Calibrate your judgment over time.

07 / ACCESS

Pricing that respects the math.

FreeGet the basics
$0/forever
  • 3 active decisions
  • Weighted scoring matrix
  • Decision journal
  • Probability database (read-only)
Start free
ProMost chosen
$9/month
  • Unlimited decisions
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Decision tree builder
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • iOS + web sync
  • Export to PDF
Go Pro
TeamDecide together
$29/month
  • Everything in Pro
  • 5 seats
  • Shared decision rooms
  • Calibration leaderboard
  • API access
  • Priority support
Start team trial

Your next big call deserves
better than a coin flip.

Free to start · iOS + Web · No credit card required