Annual Probability of Wrongful Arrest

Estimating the rate of wrongful convictions is inherently difficult, but researchers estimate that approximately 2-5% of US prisoners (about 46,000 to 115,000 people) may be wrongfully convicted. The National Registry of Exonerations has documented over 3,400 exonerations since 1989. The Innocence Project has helped exonerate over 375 people through DNA testing, with those individuals serving an average of 14 years in prison before exoneration.

The most common causes of wrongful convictions include eyewitness misidentification (contributing to about 69% of DNA exonerations), false confessions (about 29%), bad forensic science (about 43%), and informant/jailhouse snitch testimony (about 17%). Police and prosecutorial misconduct also contribute significantly. Black men are disproportionately affected, representing about 53% of exonerees despite being about 7% of the population.

Reforms to reduce wrongful convictions include improved eyewitness identification procedures (double-blind lineups), mandatory recording of interrogations, better forensic science standards, conviction integrity units in prosecutors' offices, and expanded access to post-conviction DNA testing. About 30 states now have compensation statutes for exonerees, typically providing $50,000-$100,000 per year of wrongful incarceration.