Probability of Dying from a Meteorite Strike
1 in 250,000,000
Lifetime probability in GLOBAL
The estimated odds of dying from a meteorite impact are about 1 in 250 million, though a large impact could cause mass casualties.
The probability of any individual person dying from a meteorite strike is extraordinarily small, estimated at roughly 1 in 250 million. No confirmed death from a meteorite has been recorded in modern history, though the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor in Russia injured approximately 1,500 people from shattered glass caused by the shockwave.
The risk calculation is unusual because it combines a near-zero probability of a large asteroid impact with the potentially enormous number of casualties such an event would cause. NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office tracks near-Earth objects (NEOs) and has identified no known asteroid that poses a significant impact threat within the next 100 years.
Small meteorites (pebble to basketball-sized) enter Earth's atmosphere daily but rarely reach the ground intact, and the odds of one hitting a person are vanishingly small. NASA's DART mission (2022) successfully demonstrated asteroid deflection technology, providing a potential defense against any future threat. The Spaceguard Survey has cataloged over 95% of near-Earth asteroids larger than 1 kilometer.
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