Probability of Going to Space
~1 in 1 million
Lifetime probability in Global
About 700 people have ever been to space. Space tourism is emerging but remains extraordinarily rare and expensive ($250K-$55M per seat).
As of 2024, only about 700 people have ever traveled to space (defined as crossing the Karman line at 100 km altitude or the US definition of 80 km). This makes the lifetime probability of going to space approximately 1 in 12 million based on the current global population. However, space tourism is expanding this number.
The current space tourism options include Virgin Galactic (suborbital flights to about 85 km, $450,000 per seat), Blue Origin (suborbital flights to about 100 km, approximately $250,000-$300,000), SpaceX (orbital flights, including the Inspiration4 and Polaris missions), and the International Space Station (Axiom Space missions, approximately $55 million per seat for orbital trips).
SpaceX's Starship, if successful at scale, could dramatically reduce the cost of orbital access. The company has stated a long-term goal of $100,000 per seat for Mars missions. About 1,000+ people have purchased or reserved tickets for suborbital flights. The estimated fatality risk for space tourism is currently about 1 in 100 to 1 in 500 (based on historical spaceflight data), making it one of the riskiest commercial activities, though this risk is expected to decrease as technology matures.
Use This in a Decision
Plug this probability into our expected value calculator to make a data-driven decision.
Start a Decision