Probability of a Perfect March Madness Bracket
1 in 9.2 quintillion
Per-event probability in US
The odds of picking a perfect NCAA March Madness bracket are approximately 1 in 9.2 quintillion if picking randomly.
The probability of filling out a perfect NCAA March Madness bracket (correctly predicting all 63 games in the tournament) is approximately 1 in 9.2 quintillion (9,223,372,036,854,775,808) if each game is a coin flip. With some basketball knowledge, various estimates put the realistic odds between 1 in 120 billion and 1 in 2.4 trillion.
No one has ever verified a perfect bracket in the history of the tournament. The longest known verified streak from the start of a tournament was 49 consecutive correct picks. Warren Buffett once offered $1 billion for a perfect bracket, a safe bet given the astronomical odds.
The calculation is straightforward for random picks: 2 raised to the 63rd power possible outcomes. In reality, the odds are "better" because not all games are 50-50. Top seeds rarely lose in the first round (a #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed in the men's tournament until UMBC beat Virginia in 2018). Still, accurately predicting upsets makes perfection essentially impossible, which is precisely what makes March Madness so exciting.
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