Annual Probability of Seeing Northern Lights in the Contiguous US
~5%
Annual probability in US
About 5% of residents in the northern US see the aurora borealis in a given year, with major displays visible as far south as the mid-latitudes during solar maximum.
The aurora borealis (northern lights) is visible from the contiguous United States several times per year, though impressive displays are much less frequent than at higher latitudes. During the current solar maximum (2024-2026), aurora visibility has increased significantly, with a remarkable display in May 2024 visible from most of the contiguous US.
In the northern tier of states (Washington, Montana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New York, Maine), minor aurora displays are visible about 10-20 nights per year. In mid-latitude states (Oregon, Nebraska, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania), visible aurora occurs about 2-5 times per year. In southern states, visible aurora is rare but does occur during major geomagnetic storms (typically 0-1 times per year during solar maximum).
The 11-year solar cycle significantly affects aurora frequency. During solar minimum, aurora is rarely visible below about 55 degrees north latitude. During solar maximum (such as the current cycle peaking around 2024-2025), aurora can be visible at much lower latitudes. The Kp index measures geomagnetic activity on a 0-9 scale; displays visible at mid-US latitudes typically require Kp 7+ (severe geomagnetic storm conditions). NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center provides aurora forecasts and alerts.
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