Probability of Winning a Typical 50/50 Raffle

A 50/50 raffle is one of the most common forms of charitable fundraising, where half of the total ticket sales revenue goes to the winner and half to the organization. The probability of winning depends entirely on the number of tickets sold and how many you purchase.

In a typical small event raffle with 200 ticket buyers (each buying one ticket), the probability of winning is exactly 1 in 200 (0.5%). Purchasing 5 tickets improves your odds to about 5 in 200 (2.5%). In larger events, such as professional sports game 50/50 raffles, tens of thousands of tickets may be sold, with individual odds dropping to 1 in 10,000 or less, but with correspondingly larger prizes (sometimes exceeding $100,000).

Unlike lotteries, raffles offer much better odds because the pool of participants is limited. The expected value of a 50/50 raffle ticket is always negative for the buyer (you pay $1 for a 50-cent expected return), but the social and charitable aspects differentiate raffles from pure gambling. Many states regulate raffles as a form of gaming, requiring permits for larger events. The IRS requires winners to report raffle prizes as income, and prizes over $5,000 are subject to automatic 24% federal tax withholding.