Probability of Winning a Single Blackjack Hand

In standard blackjack played with basic strategy against a dealer who stands on soft 17, a player wins approximately 42.3% of hands, pushes (ties) about 8.5%, and loses about 49.2%. The house edge under these conditions is approximately 0.5%, making blackjack one of the most favorable casino games for players.

The house edge varies based on rules: number of decks (fewer is better for the player), whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17, doubling down rules, and surrender options. A single-deck game with favorable rules can have a house edge as low as 0.15%, while a six-deck shoe with unfavorable rules may approach 1%.

Basic strategy, a mathematically derived set of optimal decisions for every possible hand combination, reduces the house edge to its minimum. Without basic strategy, the average player gives the house an additional 2-5% edge. Card counting, while not illegal, can theoretically give a skilled player a 0.5-1.5% edge over the house, which is why casinos actively attempt to identify and remove card counters.