Annual Probability of Child Drowning (Ages 1-4)
~1 in 33,000
Annual probability in US
Drowning is the leading cause of death for children ages 1-4. About 750 children under 15 drown each year, with pools being the top location.
Drowning is the number one cause of unintentional death for children ages 1-4 in the United States and the second leading cause (after motor vehicle crashes) for children 5-14. Approximately 750 children under 15 die from drowning each year, and an additional 7,000 are treated in emergency rooms for non-fatal submersion injuries. About 5% of submersion-injury children suffer brain damage.
For children ages 1-4, home swimming pools are the most common drowning location (about 69% of drownings in this age group). For older children and teens, natural water (lakes, rivers, ocean) becomes the more common setting. Drowning can happen quickly and silently: unlike dramatic portrayals, drowning rarely involves splashing and yelling. A child can submerge in as little as 20-60 seconds.
The single most effective drowning prevention measure for young children is a four-sided pool fence (at least 4 feet high with a self-closing, self-latching gate) that isolates the pool from the house. Pool fencing reduces child drowning risk by about 83%. Other critical measures include constant adult supervision (with a designated "water watcher"), swim lessons (which reduce drowning risk by about 88% for children 1-4), CPR training, and Coast Guard-approved life jackets for open water.
Use This in a Decision
Plug this probability into our expected value calculator to make a data-driven decision.
Start a Decision