Financial & Career
Probabilities related to IRS audits, bankruptcy, job loss, business success, and financial milestones.
34 probabilities in this category
Annual Probability of Filing a Workplace Discrimination Charge
About 81,000 workplace discrimination charges are filed with the EEOC each year, representing about 0.05% of the workforce.
Annual Probability of Filing for Personal Bankruptcy
About 0.2% of Americans file for personal bankruptcy each year, with medical debt and job loss as leading triggers.
Annual Probability of IRS Audit (General Population)
About 0.4% of individual tax returns are audited by the IRS, down from 1.1% in 2010. Higher incomes face significantly higher audit rates.
Annual Probability of a Teacher Leaving the Profession
About 8% of US public school teachers leave the profession each year, with burnout and low pay as primary drivers.
Probability of Becoming Disabled Before Retirement
About 25% of today's 20-year-olds will become disabled before reaching retirement age (67), according to the Social Security Administration.
Probability of Becoming a Millionaire
About 8.8% of US households have a net worth of $1 million or more, though accumulation often takes decades of saving and investing.
Probability of Being Audited by the IRS (Annual)
The overall IRS audit rate is about 0.38% (1 in 263 returns), though rates are much higher for high-income taxpayers and specific red flags.
Probability of Being Laid Off (Annual)
The annual layoff rate in the US is approximately 1.2% of total nonfarm employment, though it varies significantly by industry and economic conditions.
Probability of Being Satisfied with Your Job
About 62% of US workers report being satisfied with their jobs, a figure that has been remarkably stable over decades.
Probability of Being Underwater on Your Mortgage
About 2% of mortgaged homeowners (1.1 million) are currently underwater, owing more than their home is worth.
Probability of Being a Homeowner
About 65.9% of American households own their home, though the rate varies dramatically by age, race, and income.
Probability of Defaulting on Student Loans
About 7.2% of student loan borrowers default within 3 years of entering repayment, with for-profit college attendees at highest risk.
Probability of Defaulting on Student Loans
About 7% of student loan borrowers default within three years of entering repayment, though rates vary by institution type.
Probability of Experiencing Workplace Bullying
About 30% of Americans have experienced workplace bullying, and 19% have witnessed it. Unlike harassment, workplace bullying is not illegal in most states.
Probability of Filing for Bankruptcy (Annual)
About 0.19% of American households file for bankruptcy each year, primarily due to medical debt, job loss, or divorce.
Probability of Getting a Tax Refund
About 73% of tax filers receive a refund, with an average refund of about $2,800.
Probability of HOA Special Assessment
About 8% of HOA communities levy special assessments in a given year, averaging $2,000-$10,000 per homeowner.
Probability of Having $1 Million in Retirement Savings
About 10% of American retirees have $1 million or more in retirement savings, though the median retirement savings is far lower.
Probability of Having Adequate Retirement Savings
Only about 40% of American workers feel confident they will have enough money for a comfortable retirement.
Probability of Having Over $50,000 in Student Debt
About 17% of student loan borrowers owe more than $50,000, with the average borrower carrying about $37,000 in debt.
Probability of Having a Poor Credit Score
About 16% of Americans have a FICO score below 580 (poor), while 21% score 800+ (exceptional).
Probability of Holding Multiple Jobs
About 5% of American workers hold multiple jobs simultaneously, with the gig economy expanding this number.
Probability of Home Value Declining in a Given Year
Historically, about 20% of years see overall home price declines in some US markets, though severe drops are much rarer.
Probability of IRS Audit for Income Over $1 Million
Taxpayers earning over $1 million face an IRS audit rate of about 1.1%, roughly 3 times the overall audit rate.
Probability of Losing Your Home to Foreclosure (Annual)
The annual foreclosure rate is approximately 0.09% of US mortgaged properties, significantly down from the 2010 peak during the housing crisis.
Probability of Medical Debt Contributing to Bankruptcy
Medical bills are a factor in approximately 66% of all personal bankruptcies in the US, even for those with insurance.
Probability of Not Having Adequate Emergency Savings
About 57% of Americans cannot cover an unexpected $1,000 expense from savings, highlighting widespread financial vulnerability.
Probability of Qualifying for Student Loan Forgiveness
About 5% of federal student loan borrowers have received some form of loan forgiveness, though eligibility is broader than utilization.
Probability of Receiving an Inheritance
About 20% of American households receive an inheritance at some point, with a median amount of about $55,000.
Probability of Whistleblower Experiencing Retaliation
About 40% of whistleblowers report experiencing some form of retaliation, despite legal protections.
Probability of Working Remotely
About 27.8% of US workers were working remotely at least part of the time in 2023, down from the pandemic peak but far above pre-2020 levels.
Probability of Your Job Being at High Risk from Automation
About 25% of US jobs face high exposure to automation from AI, though full displacement is expected for fewer than 10%.
Probability of a Small Business Failing Within 5 Years
About 50% of small businesses fail within the first 5 years, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data on establishment survival.
Probability of a Small Business Surviving 10 Years
About 30% of new small businesses survive to their 10th anniversary. The first 5 years are the most critical.