Financial & Career
Probabilities related to IRS audits, bankruptcy, job loss, business success, and financial milestones.
18 probabilities in this category
Annual Probability of Filing for Personal Bankruptcy
About 0.2% of Americans file for personal bankruptcy each year, with medical debt and job loss as leading triggers.
Annual Probability of IRS Audit (General Population)
About 0.4% of individual tax returns are audited by the IRS, down from 1.1% in 2010. Higher incomes face significantly higher audit rates.
Probability of Becoming Disabled Before Retirement
About 25% of today's 20-year-olds will become disabled before reaching retirement age (67), according to the Social Security Administration.
Probability of Becoming a Millionaire
About 8.8% of US households have a net worth of $1 million or more, though accumulation often takes decades of saving and investing.
Probability of Being Audited by the IRS (Annual)
The overall IRS audit rate is about 0.38% (1 in 263 returns), though rates are much higher for high-income taxpayers and specific red flags.
Probability of Being Laid Off (Annual)
The annual layoff rate in the US is approximately 1.2% of total nonfarm employment, though it varies significantly by industry and economic conditions.
Probability of Being a Homeowner
About 65.9% of American households own their home, though the rate varies dramatically by age, race, and income.
Probability of HOA Special Assessment
About 8% of HOA communities levy special assessments in a given year, averaging $2,000-$10,000 per homeowner.
Probability of Having $1 Million in Retirement Savings
About 10% of American retirees have $1 million or more in retirement savings, though the median retirement savings is far lower.
Probability of Having a Poor Credit Score
About 16% of Americans have a FICO score below 580 (poor), while 21% score 800+ (exceptional).
Probability of IRS Audit for Income Over $1 Million
Taxpayers earning over $1 million face an IRS audit rate of about 1.1%, roughly 3 times the overall audit rate.
Probability of Medical Debt Contributing to Bankruptcy
Medical bills are a factor in approximately 66% of all personal bankruptcies in the US, even for those with insurance.
Probability of Not Having Adequate Emergency Savings
About 57% of Americans cannot cover an unexpected $1,000 expense from savings, highlighting widespread financial vulnerability.
Probability of Receiving an Inheritance
About 20% of American households receive an inheritance at some point, with a median amount of about $55,000.
Probability of Working Remotely
About 27.8% of US workers were working remotely at least part of the time in 2023, down from the pandemic peak but far above pre-2020 levels.
Probability of Your Job Being at High Risk from Automation
About 25% of US jobs face high exposure to automation from AI, though full displacement is expected for fewer than 10%.
Probability of a Small Business Failing Within 5 Years
About 50% of small businesses fail within the first 5 years, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data on establishment survival.
Probability of a Small Business Surviving 10 Years
About 30% of new small businesses survive to their 10th anniversary. The first 5 years are the most critical.