LOW RISKCONDITIONAL

Probability of Qualifying for Student Loan Forgiveness

~5%

Conditional probability in US

About 5% of federal student loan borrowers have received some form of loan forgiveness, though eligibility is broader than utilization.

|Type: GOVERNMENT

As of 2024, approximately 5% of federal student loan borrowers (about 4.8 million people) have received some form of loan discharge or forgiveness totaling over $167 billion. The main forgiveness programs include Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF), income-driven repayment plan forgiveness, borrower defense to repayment, total and permanent disability discharge, and closed school discharge.

PSLF, which forgives remaining balances after 120 qualifying payments while working for qualifying employers (government, nonprofits), has seen dramatically improved approval rates since program reforms in 2022. About 900,000 borrowers have received PSLF as of 2024, compared to fewer than 10,000 before the temporary waiver program. However, the denial rate for initial PSLF applications remains about 50% due to incorrect loan types and payment plan issues.

Income-driven repayment plans forgive remaining balances after 20-25 years of payments. About 16 million borrowers are currently enrolled in IDR plans. The SAVE plan (introduced in 2023) offers the most generous terms, with some borrowers seeing $0 monthly payments. About 43 million Americans hold federal student loans totaling $1.77 trillion. Navigating forgiveness programs requires careful attention to loan types, payment plans, and employer certification.

Use This in a Decision

Plug this probability into our expected value calculator to make a data-driven decision.

Start a Decision