Probability of Developing End-Stage Kidney Failure

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) affects approximately 808,000 Americans, with about 130,000 new cases diagnosed each year. The lifetime risk of developing ESRD is approximately 0.4% for the general population, though it is substantially higher for certain groups.

Diabetes and high blood pressure are the two leading causes, accounting for about 73% of new ESRD cases. African Americans are nearly 4 times more likely to develop ESRD than white Americans. Other risk factors include family history of kidney disease, obesity, heart disease, and recurrent kidney infections.

Treatment options for ESRD include hemodialysis (performed at a center or at home), peritoneal dialysis, and kidney transplant. About 70% of ESRD patients are on dialysis, while 30% have a functioning transplant. The median survival time on dialysis is 5-10 years, while a kidney transplant recipient can expect 12-20 years of graft function. The annual cost of dialysis is approximately $90,000 per patient.