Health & Disease
Probabilities related to diseases, medical conditions, and health outcomes including cancer, heart disease, and other major illnesses.
115 probabilities in this category
Annual Probability of Blood Clot (DVT or PE)
About 900,000 Americans develop a DVT or pulmonary embolism each year. Up to 100,000 die from PE, making it a leading vascular killer.
Annual Probability of Brain Aneurysm Rupture
About 30,000 Americans suffer a ruptured brain aneurysm each year, with a fatality rate of about 40%.
Annual Probability of C. diff Infection
About 500,000 C. diff infections occur annually in the US, causing about 29,000 deaths. It is the most common healthcare-associated infection.
Annual Probability of E. coli Infection
About 265,000 Shiga toxin-producing E. coli infections occur annually in the US, causing about 3,600 hospitalizations.
Annual Probability of Eating Recalled Food
About 15% of Americans unknowingly eat recalled food products each year. The FDA issues about 400 food recalls annually.
Annual Probability of Food Poisoning from Restaurant
About 60% of foodborne illness outbreaks are linked to restaurants. An estimated 4% of restaurant diners get food poisoning yearly.
Annual Probability of Frostbite
About 250,000 Americans experience frostbite or cold-related injuries each year, with about 1,300 dying from hypothermia.
Annual Probability of Lyme Disease
About 476,000 Americans are diagnosed and treated for Lyme disease each year. Risk is concentrated in the Northeast and upper Midwest.
Annual Probability of Poison Ivy Rash
About 50 million Americans develop a poison ivy, oak, or sumac rash each year. About 85% of the population is allergic to urushiol.
Annual Probability of a Prescription Medication Error
About 1.5 million Americans are affected by medication errors each year. Pharmacy dispensing errors occur in about 2% of prescriptions filled.
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Alzheimer Disease (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from Alzheimer disease of 27.1 per 100,000 (about 1 in 3,690).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Chronic Liver Disease and Cirrhosis (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from chronic liver disease and cirrhosis of 12.7 per 100,000 (about 1 in 7,874).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from chronic lower respiratory diseases of 32.4 per 100,000 (about 1 in 3,086).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Diabetes (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from diabetes of 21.7 per 100,000 (about 1 in 4,608).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Drug Overdose Suicide (2023)
In 2023, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from drug overdose suicide of 1.3 per 100,000 (about 1 in 76,923).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Firearm Suicide (2023)
In 2023, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from firearm suicide of 7.6 per 100,000 (about 1 in 13,158).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Heart Disease (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from heart disease of 157.6 per 100,000 (about 1 in 635).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Kidney Disease (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from kidney disease of 12.6 per 100,000 (about 1 in 7,937).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Stroke (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from stroke of 38.6 per 100,000 (about 1 in 2,591).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Suffocation Suicide (2023)
In 2023, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from suffocation suicide of 3.6 per 100,000 (about 1 in 27,778).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Suicide (2023)
In 2023, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from suicide of 14.1 per 100,000 (about 1 in 7,092).
Annual U.S. Death Risk from Suicide (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an age-adjusted U.S. death rate from suicide of 13.7 per 100,000 (about 1 in 7,299).
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Alprazolam (2023)
In 2023, Alprazolam was involved in 4.4% of overdose deaths (4,642 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Amphetamine (2023)
In 2023, Amphetamine was involved in 3.4% of overdose deaths (3,658 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Bromazolam (2023)
In 2023, Bromazolam was involved in 1.6% of overdose deaths (1,734 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Clonazepam (2023)
In 2023, Clonazepam was involved in 1.9% of overdose deaths (1,976 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Cocaine (2023)
In 2023, Cocaine was involved in 29.8% of overdose deaths (31,700 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Diphenhydramine (2023)
In 2023, Diphenhydramine was involved in 2.5% of overdose deaths (2,616 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Fentanyl (2023)
In 2023, Fentanyl was involved in 68.9% of overdose deaths (73,297 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Gabapentin (2023)
In 2023, Gabapentin was involved in 3.8% of overdose deaths (4,027 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Heroin (2023)
In 2023, Heroin was involved in 3.8% of overdose deaths (4,071 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Hydrocodone (2023)
In 2023, Hydrocodone was involved in 1.9% of overdose deaths (2,043 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Methadone (2023)
In 2023, Methadone was involved in 3.2% of overdose deaths (3,451 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Methamphetamine (2023)
In 2023, Methamphetamine was involved in 32.1% of overdose deaths (34,167 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Morphine (2023)
In 2023, Morphine was involved in 2.2% of overdose deaths (2,345 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Oxycodone (2023)
In 2023, Oxycodone was involved in 3.9% of overdose deaths (4,142 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Chance an Overdose Death Involved Xylazine (2023)
In 2023, Xylazine was involved in 5.7% of overdose deaths (6,096 deaths), according to NCHS literal-text overdose mortality analysis.
Global Annual Probability of Malaria Infection
Approximately 250 million malaria cases occur globally each year, affecting about 3% of the world's population, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa.
Infant Death Risk from Birth Asphyxia (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an infant mortality rate from intrauterine hypoxia and birth asphyxia of 10.1 per 100,000 live births (about 1 in 9,901).
Infant Death Risk from Congenital Malformations (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an infant mortality rate from congenital malformations, deformations, and chromosomal abnormalities of 111.9 per 100,000 live births (about 1 in 894).
Infant Death Risk from Placenta and Cord Complications (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an infant mortality rate from placenta, cord, and membrane complications of 16.4 per 100,000 live births (about 1 in 6,098).
Infant Death Risk from Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (2024)
In 2024, NCHS reported an infant mortality rate from sudden infant death syndrome of 37.2 per 100,000 live births (about 1 in 2,688).
Lifetime Probability of Any Anxiety Disorder
About 31.6% of American adults will experience any anxiety disorder at some point, making it the most common mental health condition.
Lifetime Probability of Appendicitis
About 7% of Americans will develop appendicitis in their lifetime, most commonly between ages 10 and 30.
Lifetime Probability of Developing Atrial Fibrillation
About 1 in 4 Americans over 40 will develop atrial fibrillation (AFib), the most common heart rhythm disorder.
Lifetime Probability of Developing Shingles
About 1 in 3 Americans will develop shingles (herpes zoster) during their lifetime. Risk increases dramatically after age 50.
Lifetime Probability of Developing Type 2 Diabetes
About 40% of Americans will develop type 2 diabetes in their lifetime. Currently, 11.6% of the population (38 million) has diabetes.
Lifetime Probability of Experiencing Anaphylaxis
About 1.6-5.1% of Americans experience anaphylaxis in their lifetime. The rate has increased 100%+ over the past 20 years.
Lifetime Probability of Experiencing a Panic Attack
About 28% of adults experience at least one panic attack in their lifetime, though only about 4.7% develop panic disorder.
Lifetime Probability of Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer
About 1 in 5 Americans will develop non-melanoma skin cancer (basal or squamous cell) by age 70.
Lifetime Probability of Rotator Cuff Surgery
About 2% of Americans will undergo rotator cuff surgery, with about 450,000 repairs performed annually.
Lifetime Probability of Total Hip Replacement
About 5% of Americans will undergo total hip replacement, with about 450,000 procedures performed annually.
Lifetime Probability of Total Knee Replacement
About 7% of Americans will undergo total knee replacement during their lifetime, with about 790,000 procedures performed annually.
Mortality Rate After Hip Fracture in Elderly
About 21% of elderly patients who suffer a hip fracture die within one year. About 300,000 hip fractures occur annually in those over 65.
Probability of Allergic Reaction to Medication
About 10% of the population reports a drug allergy, though only about 1-2% have true immune-mediated allergic reactions.
Probability of Appendix Rupturing Before Surgery
About 20-30% of appendicitis cases result in a ruptured appendix, with higher rates in children under 5 (40-60%) and adults over 65.
Probability of Being Allergic to Insect Stings
About 5% of Americans have a systemic allergy to insect stings, with 60-70 sting-related deaths per year.
Probability of Being Hospitalized in a Given Year
About 10% of Americans are hospitalized in any given year, with an average length of stay of about 5.4 days.
Probability of Being Lactose Intolerant
About 36% of Americans have some degree of lactose intolerance, with rates much higher in certain ethnic groups.
Probability of Being Nearsighted (Myopia)
About 42% of Americans are nearsighted (myopic), a rate that has nearly doubled since 1971 and is projected to continue rising.
Probability of Being a Cystic Fibrosis Carrier
About 1 in 25 Americans of European descent is a carrier of the cystic fibrosis gene, while the disease itself affects about 1 in 3,500 births.
Probability of Being on a Cruise During a Norovirus Outbreak
About 0.3% of cruise voyages experience a reportable gastrointestinal illness outbreak, affecting 3%+ of passengers.
Probability of Carpal Tunnel During Pregnancy
About 30-50% of pregnant women experience some degree of carpal tunnel syndrome, usually developing in the second or third trimester.
Probability of Carrying a BRCA Gene Mutation
About 1 in 250 people carry a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation, which significantly increases breast and ovarian cancer risk.
Probability of Color Vision Deficiency in Women
Only about 0.5% of women have color vision deficiency, compared to about 8% of men, due to the X-linked inheritance pattern.
Probability of Developing ALS
About 1 in 3,300 Americans will develop ALS (Lou Gehrig's disease), a progressive neurodegenerative disease with no cure.
Probability of Developing Brain or CNS Cancer
About 0.6% of Americans will be diagnosed with brain or central nervous system cancer in their lifetime.
Probability of Developing Breast Cancer (Women)
About 1 in 8 women (13%) in the US will develop invasive breast cancer over the course of her lifetime.
Probability of Developing Cancer in Your Lifetime
Approximately 39.5% of Americans will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime, based on SEER data.
Probability of Developing Crohn's Disease
About 0.3% of Americans have Crohn's disease, a chronic inflammatory bowel disease that most commonly begins in young adulthood.
Probability of Developing Dementia After Age 85
About one-third of people aged 85 and older have some form of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease.
Probability of Developing Diverticulitis
About 50% of people over 60 have diverticulosis, and about 5% of those will develop diverticulitis (inflammation or infection).
Probability of Developing End-Stage Kidney Failure
About 1 in 250 Americans develops end-stage kidney disease requiring dialysis or transplant.
Probability of Developing Gallstones
About 10-15% of American adults develop gallstones, resulting in about 700,000 cholecystectomies (gallbladder removals) per year.
Probability of Developing Gout
About 3.9% of US adults (8.3 million) have gout, the most common form of inflammatory arthritis, with men at 3x higher risk.
Probability of Developing Kidney Stones (Lifetime)
About 1 in 9 Americans (11%) will develop kidney stones at some point in their lifetime, with men at higher risk than women.
Probability of Developing Lung Cancer
About 1 in 16 Americans will develop lung cancer in their lifetime, with smoking being the primary risk factor.
Probability of Developing Lupus
About 1 in 1,500 Americans develop systemic lupus erythematosus, with 9 out of 10 patients being women.
Probability of Developing Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma
Approximately 2.1% of Americans will develop non-Hodgkin lymphoma in their lifetime, making it the seventh most common cancer.
Probability of Developing OCD
About 2.5% of Americans will develop obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) in their lifetime.
Probability of Developing Pancreatic Cancer
About 1 in 60 Americans will develop pancreatic cancer in their lifetime. It has one of the lowest survival rates of any cancer.
Probability of Developing Plantar Fasciitis
About 10% of people develop plantar fasciitis during their lifetime, making it the most common cause of heel pain.
Probability of Developing Prostate Cancer (Men)
About 1 in 8 men will be diagnosed with prostate cancer during their lifetime, making it the most common non-skin cancer in men.
Probability of Developing Sciatica
About 40% of people experience sciatica at some point. It is the most common form of radiculopathy, often caused by a herniated disc.
Probability of Developing Testicular Cancer (Men)
About 0.4% of men will develop testicular cancer, but it has one of the highest cure rates of all cancers at over 95%.
Probability of Developing Type 1 Diabetes
About 1 in 200 Americans will develop type 1 diabetes, an autoimmune condition most commonly diagnosed in children and young adults.
Probability of Developing a Hernia
About 25% of men and 2% of women will develop an inguinal hernia during their lifetime. Over 1 million hernia repairs are performed yearly.
Probability of Dying by Suicide
The lifetime odds of dying by suicide in the US are approximately 1 in 71, making it the 11th leading cause of death.
Probability of Dying from COVID-19 (Infection Fatality Rate)
The overall infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 is estimated at approximately 0.3%, though it varies from near 0% for young people to over 10% for the elderly.
Probability of Dying from Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease (COPD)
Chronic lower respiratory diseases (primarily COPD) are the 6th leading cause of death in the US, with lifetime odds of approximately 1 in 21.
Probability of Ectopic Pregnancy
About 2% of all pregnancies are ectopic (implant outside the uterus), a life-threatening emergency requiring immediate treatment.
Probability of Food Allergy Causing Anaphylaxis
About 1.5% of people with food allergies experience anaphylaxis each year, with roughly 200 deaths annually in the US.
Probability of Getting Appendicitis (Lifetime)
About 8.6% of Americans (roughly 1 in 12) will develop appendicitis at some point in their lifetime, most commonly between ages 10 and 30.
Probability of Getting Salmonella
About 1.35 million Salmonella infections occur in the US annually, though only about 26,500 are confirmed by lab tests.
Probability of Getting Sick on a Cruise
About 2% of cruise ship passengers experience gastrointestinal illness during a voyage, most commonly from norovirus.
Probability of HPV Infection in Your Lifetime
About 80% of sexually active Americans will contract HPV at some point, making it the most common sexually transmitted infection.
Probability of Having Celiac Disease
About 1% of the US population has celiac disease, an autoimmune reaction to gluten, though most cases remain undiagnosed.
Probability of Having Chronic Insomnia
About 10% of adults have chronic insomnia (difficulty sleeping at least 3 nights per week for 3+ months), costing the US $63 billion in lost productivity.
Probability of Having Chronic Kidney Disease
About 14% of US adults (37 million people) have chronic kidney disease, with most being unaware they have it.
Probability of Having Microplastics in Your Blood
A landmark 2022 study found microplastics in the blood of 80% of participants, raising concerns about health impacts.
Probability of Having Social Anxiety Disorder
About 7% of Americans experience social anxiety disorder in any given year, making it one of the most common anxiety disorders.
Probability of Having a Baby with Down Syndrome
About 1 in 700 babies in the US is born with Down syndrome, with risk increasing significantly with maternal age.
Probability of Having a Peanut Allergy
About 2.5% of American children have a peanut allergy, a rate that has tripled over the past 20 years.
Probability of Having a Shellfish Allergy
Shellfish allergy affects about 2.5% of American adults, making it the most common food allergy in adults.
Probability of Hip Fracture After Age 65
About 15% of women and 5% of men will suffer a hip fracture after age 65, with a 20% mortality rate within one year.
Probability of Hospital-Acquired Infection
About 1 in 25 hospital patients develops a healthcare-associated infection. These cause about 75,000 deaths per year.
Probability of Kidney Stone Recurrence
About 50% of people who have one kidney stone will develop another within 5-10 years without preventive measures.
Probability of Miscarriage
About 10-20% of known pregnancies end in miscarriage, with the vast majority occurring in the first trimester.
Probability of Needing Emergency Surgery in a Given Year
About 3% of Americans undergo emergency surgery each year, with appendectomies and gallbladder removals among the most common.
Probability of Needing a Tonsillectomy
About 5% of Americans undergo a tonsillectomy, with about 530,000 procedures performed annually in children under 15.
Probability of Needing an Organ Transplant
Over 100,000 Americans are on the organ transplant waiting list. About 17 people die each day waiting for a transplant.
Probability of Problem Gambling Among Sports Bettors
About 6% of sports bettors develop problem gambling behaviors. Legal sports betting has expanded rapidly since 2018.
Probability of Recurrent UTI in Women
About 27% of women who have a UTI will have a recurrence within 6 months, and 3-5% develop frequent recurrent infections.
Probability of Significant Mold Exposure at Home
About 47% of US homes have visible mold or dampness. About 21% of asthma cases are attributable to mold exposure.
Probability of Visiting the Emergency Room (Annual)
About 14.8% of Americans visit an emergency department each year, totaling approximately 130 million ED visits annually.