Probability of Dying from COVID-19 (Infection Fatality Rate)
0.3% IFR (varies greatly by age)
Conditional probability in US
The overall infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 is estimated at approximately 0.3%, though it varies from near 0% for young people to over 10% for the elderly.
The infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 has been estimated at approximately 0.3% overall in the pre-Omicron era, based on meta-analyses of seroprevalence studies. However, this average masks enormous age variation: the IFR for people under 20 is approximately 0.003%, while for those over 80 it exceeds 10%.
By early 2024, COVID-19 had killed over 1.1 million Americans. Risk factors for severe disease and death include advanced age (the strongest factor), obesity, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, immunosuppression, and being unvaccinated. Vaccination dramatically reduces the risk of severe disease and death, with studies showing 90%+ reduction in mortality for vaccinated individuals.
The pandemic highlighted health disparities: communities of color, lower-income populations, and essential workers faced disproportionately higher infection and death rates. As COVID transitions to an endemic phase, annual vaccination (similar to flu shots) is recommended for most adults. The IFR has decreased over time due to population immunity, improved treatments, and the evolution of less virulent variants.
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