MEDIUM RISKLIFETIME

Lifetime Probability of Developing Shingles

~1 in 3

Lifetime probability in US

About 1 in 3 Americans will develop shingles (herpes zoster) during their lifetime. Risk increases dramatically after age 50.

|Type: GOVERNMENT

Shingles (herpes zoster) is caused by reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus, the same virus that causes chickenpox. About 1 in 3 Americans will develop shingles during their lifetime, with approximately 1 million cases occurring each year. The risk increases significantly with age: about 50% of shingles cases occur in people over 60.

Shingles typically presents as a painful, blistering rash on one side of the body, often in a band-like pattern. The most feared complication is postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), chronic pain lasting months to years after the rash resolves, which affects about 10-18% of shingles patients (and up to 30% of those over 60). Other complications include vision loss (when shingles affects the eye), hearing problems, and bacterial skin infections.

The Shingrix vaccine is highly effective (over 90% in preventing shingles) and is recommended for all adults 50 and older, as well as immunocompromised adults 19 and older. Two doses given 2-6 months apart provide strong, lasting protection (about 85% effective at 4 years). Despite the vaccine's effectiveness, only about 35% of adults 50+ have received the recommended two-dose series. Treatment for active shingles includes antiviral medications (valacyclovir, acyclovir) and pain management.

Use This in a Decision

Plug this probability into our expected value calculator to make a data-driven decision.

Start a Decision