Lifetime Probability of Developing Type 2 Diabetes
~40%
Lifetime probability in US
About 40% of Americans will develop type 2 diabetes in their lifetime. Currently, 11.6% of the population (38 million) has diabetes.
The lifetime risk of developing type 2 diabetes for an American born today is approximately 40%, according to CDC projections. Currently, 38.4 million Americans (11.6% of the population) have diabetes (mostly type 2), and an additional 97.6 million adults (38% of the population) have prediabetes. About 21.4% of people with diabetes don't know they have it.
Type 2 diabetes risk is strongly influenced by weight (about 90% of people with type 2 diabetes are overweight or obese), physical inactivity, family history, race/ethnicity (risk is higher for Black, Hispanic, Native American, and Asian American individuals), and age. The disease has increasingly been diagnosed in younger people, including adolescents, paralleling the rise in obesity.
Diabetes is the 8th leading cause of death in the US and a major contributor to heart disease, stroke, kidney failure, blindness, and lower limb amputations. The total cost of diabetes in the US exceeds $413 billion per year. GLP-1 receptor agonists (semaglutide, tirzepatide) have shown remarkable results in both weight loss and blood sugar control. Lifestyle interventions (moderate weight loss of 5-7% and 150 minutes of weekly exercise) can reduce the risk of progressing from prediabetes to diabetes by 58%.
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