Probability of PTSD Among Combat Veterans
~15%
Conditional probability in US
About 11-20% of veterans who served in Iraq/Afghanistan develop PTSD. Vietnam veterans had rates of about 30%.
Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) affects approximately 11-20% of veterans who served in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom (Iraq and Afghanistan), about 12% of Gulf War veterans, and about 30% of Vietnam War veterans. The VA provides treatment to over 600,000 veterans with PTSD annually.
Combat PTSD symptoms include re-experiencing (flashbacks, nightmares), avoidance (staying away from reminders), negative changes in thinking and mood, and hyperarousal (being easily startled, difficulty sleeping). Symptoms may not appear for months or years after deployment. About 50% of veterans with PTSD do not seek treatment due to stigma, difficulty accessing care, or not recognizing symptoms.
Evidence-based treatments include Cognitive Processing Therapy (CPT) and Prolonged Exposure (PE) therapy, both of which are effective in 50-60% of patients. EMDR (Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing) is also effective. Medications include sertraline and paroxetine (the only FDA-approved medications for PTSD). MDMA-assisted therapy showed promising results in clinical trials. The VA has significantly expanded telehealth and community-based services to improve access.
Use This in a Decision
Plug this probability into our expected value calculator to make a data-driven decision.
Start a Decision