Probability of Getting Divorced

The commonly cited statistic that "50% of marriages end in divorce" is somewhat outdated. Current data suggests that approximately 41% of first marriages end in divorce, with the rate having declined since its peak in the 1980s. Second marriages have a higher divorce rate (about 60%), and third marriages even higher (about 73%).

Factors that increase divorce risk include marrying at a young age (under 25), lower education and income levels, premarital cohabitation with multiple partners, having divorced parents, significant income disparity between spouses, infidelity, and substance abuse. Conversely, marrying after age 25, having a college degree, sharing religious beliefs, and having a higher household income all correlate with lower divorce rates.

The decline in divorce rates since the 1980s is attributed to couples marrying later, increased economic independence allowing people to be more selective about partners, changing social norms around marriage, and more couples cohabiting without marrying. Couples who invest in their relationship through communication, counseling when needed, shared financial goals, and maintaining intimacy tend to have stronger marriages.