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Life Events

Odds of major life events including marriage, divorce, having twins, and other personal milestones.

32 probabilities in this category

~15%MEDIUM

Annual Probability of Basement Flooding

About 15% of homeowners with basements experience some form of basement flooding or water intrusion each year.

ANNUAL
~12%LOW

Annual Probability of Having an HOA Dispute

About 12% of HOA homeowners report having a significant dispute with their association in a given year.

ANNUAL
~4%LOW

Annual Probability of Losing Your Wallet

About 4% of Americans lose their wallet or purse each year. Studies show about 40-50% of lost wallets are returned.

ANNUAL
~3%LOW

Annual Probability of Sewer Backup Into Home

About 3% of homes with sewer connections experience a sewer backup in a given year, causing an average of $5,000-$10,000 in damage.

ANNUAL
~2%LOW

Annual Probability of Termite Damage to a Home

About 2% of US homes experience termite damage each year, causing an estimated $5 billion in property damage annually.

ANNUAL
~10%MEDIUM

Probability of Baby Being Admitted to NICU

About 10% of newborns in the US require admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) after birth.

PER EVENT
1 in 1,461LOW

Probability of Being Born on February 29 (Leap Day)

The probability of being born on February 29 (Leap Day) is approximately 1 in 1,461, since leap years occur roughly once every 4 years.

PER EVENT
~15% per yearLOW

Probability of Being Called for Jury Duty

About 32 million Americans receive a jury duty summons each year (~15% of eligible adults), though only about 8 million actually report.

ANNUAL
69%LOW

Probability of Cohabiting Before Marriage

About 69% of couples who marry in the US today lived together before their wedding, up from just 10% in the 1960s.

CONDITIONAL
13.7%LOW

Probability of Completing a Graduate Degree

About 13.7% of US adults hold a master's degree or higher, though the rate has been increasing steadily.

LIFETIME
36%HIGH

Probability of Dropping Out of College

About 36% of students who start a bachelor's degree do not complete it within 6 years, with first-generation students at higher risk.

CONDITIONAL
~5% per yearMEDIUM

Probability of Experiencing Roof Damage

About 5% of US homeowners file a roof damage claim each year, with wind and hail being the most common causes.

ANNUAL
1 in 60LOW

Probability of Experiencing a Burst Pipe

About 1 in 60 homeowners file a water damage insurance claim each year, with burst pipes being the most common cause.

ANNUAL
~25%MEDIUM

Probability of Foundation Settlement Causing Damage

About 25% of homes experience some foundation settlement issues during their lifetime. Repair costs average $4,000-$12,000.

LIFETIME
41%HIGH

Probability of Getting Divorced

Approximately 41% of first marriages in the US end in divorce, though the rate has been declining in recent years.

CONDITIONAL
83%LOW

Probability of Getting Married by Age 40

About 83% of Americans will marry at least once by age 40, though the median age at first marriage has been rising steadily.

CONDITIONAL
46%MEDIUM

Probability of Graduating College in 4 Years

Only about 46% of students at 4-year institutions graduate within 4 years. The 6-year graduation rate is approximately 64%.

CONDITIONAL
25%MEDIUM

Probability of Having Foundation Issues

About 25% of US homes will experience some form of structural distress from foundation problems during their lifetime.

LIFETIME
47%MEDIUM

Probability of Having Mold in Your Home

About 47% of US homes have visible mold or significant moisture problems, according to EPA estimates.

LIFETIME
1 in 1,149LOW

Probability of Having Triplets

About 1 in 1,149 births in the US results in triplets or higher-order multiples, though this rate has declined with changes in IVF practices.

PER EVENT
1 in 31 (3.2%)LOW

Probability of Having Twins

About 3.2% of all births in the US are twins (approximately 1 in 31 pregnancies), a rate that has increased due to fertility treatments.

PER EVENT
~3.2%LOW

Probability of Having Twins Naturally

About 3.2% of all US births are twins. Without fertility treatment, the natural twin rate is about 1.2% (identical) + variable fraternal rates.

PER EVENT
~15%LOW

Probability of Having a Prenuptial Agreement

About 15% of married Americans have a prenuptial agreement, a rate that has increased significantly among millennials.

CONDITIONAL
~20%LOW

Probability of Having a Serious Neighbor Dispute

About 20% of Americans report having had a serious dispute with a neighbor, most commonly over noise, property boundaries, or pets.

ANNUAL
~35% per cycleMEDIUM

Probability of IVF Resulting in Live Birth

The average IVF success rate (live birth per cycle) is about 35%, but varies dramatically by age from over 50% under 35 to under 5% over 42.

PER EVENT
58%MEDIUM

Probability of Long-Distance Relationship Success

About 58% of long-distance relationships survive, roughly comparable to the success rate of geographically close relationships.

CONDITIONAL
50%LOW

Probability of Making a Major Career Change

About 50% of American workers make a significant career change at some point in their working life.

LIFETIME
40%LOW

Probability of Meeting Your Spouse Online

About 40% of couples who married in recent years met online, making it the most common way to find a partner.

CONDITIONAL
~20%MEDIUM

Probability of Multiple Birth from IVF

About 20% of IVF pregnancies result in multiples (mostly twins), though single embryo transfer is reducing this rate.

CONDITIONAL
~60%MEDIUM

Probability of Second Marriage Ending in Divorce

About 60% of second marriages end in divorce, higher than the 40-50% rate for first marriages.

LIFETIME
~30%LOW

Probability of Using Online Dating

About 30% of American adults have used a dating site or app, with the rate reaching 53% among adults under 30.

CONDITIONAL
~60%MEDIUM

Probability of a Home Renovation Going Over Budget

About 60% of homeowners who undertake renovations go over budget, with an average overage of about 20%.

PER EVENT