Life Events
Odds of major life events including marriage, divorce, having twins, and other personal milestones.
32 probabilities in this category
Annual Probability of Basement Flooding
About 15% of homeowners with basements experience some form of basement flooding or water intrusion each year.
Annual Probability of Having an HOA Dispute
About 12% of HOA homeowners report having a significant dispute with their association in a given year.
Annual Probability of Losing Your Wallet
About 4% of Americans lose their wallet or purse each year. Studies show about 40-50% of lost wallets are returned.
Annual Probability of Sewer Backup Into Home
About 3% of homes with sewer connections experience a sewer backup in a given year, causing an average of $5,000-$10,000 in damage.
Annual Probability of Termite Damage to a Home
About 2% of US homes experience termite damage each year, causing an estimated $5 billion in property damage annually.
Probability of Baby Being Admitted to NICU
About 10% of newborns in the US require admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) after birth.
Probability of Being Born on February 29 (Leap Day)
The probability of being born on February 29 (Leap Day) is approximately 1 in 1,461, since leap years occur roughly once every 4 years.
Probability of Being Called for Jury Duty
About 32 million Americans receive a jury duty summons each year (~15% of eligible adults), though only about 8 million actually report.
Probability of Cohabiting Before Marriage
About 69% of couples who marry in the US today lived together before their wedding, up from just 10% in the 1960s.
Probability of Completing a Graduate Degree
About 13.7% of US adults hold a master's degree or higher, though the rate has been increasing steadily.
Probability of Dropping Out of College
About 36% of students who start a bachelor's degree do not complete it within 6 years, with first-generation students at higher risk.
Probability of Experiencing Roof Damage
About 5% of US homeowners file a roof damage claim each year, with wind and hail being the most common causes.
Probability of Experiencing a Burst Pipe
About 1 in 60 homeowners file a water damage insurance claim each year, with burst pipes being the most common cause.
Probability of Foundation Settlement Causing Damage
About 25% of homes experience some foundation settlement issues during their lifetime. Repair costs average $4,000-$12,000.
Probability of Getting Divorced
Approximately 41% of first marriages in the US end in divorce, though the rate has been declining in recent years.
Probability of Getting Married by Age 40
About 83% of Americans will marry at least once by age 40, though the median age at first marriage has been rising steadily.
Probability of Graduating College in 4 Years
Only about 46% of students at 4-year institutions graduate within 4 years. The 6-year graduation rate is approximately 64%.
Probability of Having Foundation Issues
About 25% of US homes will experience some form of structural distress from foundation problems during their lifetime.
Probability of Having Mold in Your Home
About 47% of US homes have visible mold or significant moisture problems, according to EPA estimates.
Probability of Having Triplets
About 1 in 1,149 births in the US results in triplets or higher-order multiples, though this rate has declined with changes in IVF practices.
Probability of Having Twins
About 3.2% of all births in the US are twins (approximately 1 in 31 pregnancies), a rate that has increased due to fertility treatments.
Probability of Having Twins Naturally
About 3.2% of all US births are twins. Without fertility treatment, the natural twin rate is about 1.2% (identical) + variable fraternal rates.
Probability of Having a Prenuptial Agreement
About 15% of married Americans have a prenuptial agreement, a rate that has increased significantly among millennials.
Probability of Having a Serious Neighbor Dispute
About 20% of Americans report having had a serious dispute with a neighbor, most commonly over noise, property boundaries, or pets.
Probability of IVF Resulting in Live Birth
The average IVF success rate (live birth per cycle) is about 35%, but varies dramatically by age from over 50% under 35 to under 5% over 42.
Probability of Long-Distance Relationship Success
About 58% of long-distance relationships survive, roughly comparable to the success rate of geographically close relationships.
Probability of Making a Major Career Change
About 50% of American workers make a significant career change at some point in their working life.
Probability of Meeting Your Spouse Online
About 40% of couples who married in recent years met online, making it the most common way to find a partner.
Probability of Multiple Birth from IVF
About 20% of IVF pregnancies result in multiples (mostly twins), though single embryo transfer is reducing this rate.
Probability of Second Marriage Ending in Divorce
About 60% of second marriages end in divorce, higher than the 40-50% rate for first marriages.
Probability of Using Online Dating
About 30% of American adults have used a dating site or app, with the rate reaching 53% among adults under 30.
Probability of a Home Renovation Going Over Budget
About 60% of homeowners who undertake renovations go over budget, with an average overage of about 20%.