Probability of Getting Married by Age 40

According to Census Bureau data, approximately 83% of Americans will marry at least once by age 40. However, the median age at first marriage has been rising steadily: it was 30.5 for men and 28.6 for women in 2023, compared to 26.1 and 23.9 respectively in 1990.

Marriage rates vary by education and income. College-educated Americans are more likely to marry and less likely to divorce than those without a college degree, a reversal from historical patterns. Geographic variation is also significant: marriage rates are higher in the South and Mountain West than in the Northeast and West Coast.

The trend toward later marriage reflects broader social changes: more time spent in education, prioritizing career establishment, the rising acceptability of cohabitation, and greater financial independence for women. Research suggests that marrying later (after age 25) is associated with lower divorce rates and higher marital satisfaction, partly because older couples tend to be more financially stable and emotionally mature.