Annual Probability of Wildfire Evacuation

Wildfire evacuations have become increasingly common in the United States, with an estimated 1-2 million people ordered to evacuate due to wildfires each year. The 2020-2023 wildfire seasons were among the most destructive on record, with the Camp Fire (2018), Dixie Fire (2021), and Marshall Fire (2021) causing unprecedented urban-wildland interface destruction.

About 44 million homes (one-third of all US homes) are in the wildland-urban interface (WUI), where development meets or intermingles with wildland vegetation. The WUI has been the fastest-growing land use type in the US, with a 41% increase in homes since 1990. This expansion significantly increases wildfire risk and evacuation frequency.

Wildfire risk is concentrated in the western US, though significant risk also exists in the Southeast and central states. Average annual area burned has more than doubled since 1990, largely attributed to climate change, decades of fire suppression (leading to fuel buildup), and WUI expansion. Defensible space (maintaining 100+ feet of cleared area around structures), fire-resistant building materials, community wildfire protection plans, and early evacuation compliance are the most effective strategies for reducing wildfire harm.