Natural Disasters
Probabilities of experiencing earthquakes, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, and other natural catastrophic events.
17 probabilities in this category
Annual Probability of Earthquake Damage to a Home (US)
About 0.2% of US homes experience earthquake damage in a given year, concentrated in California, Alaska, and the Pacific Northwest.
Annual Probability of Experiencing a Significant Tornado
About 1,200 tornadoes hit the US annually, but only about 5% (60) are rated EF3 or higher. The deadliest are extremely rare.
Annual Probability of Feeling an Earthquake in the US
About 10% of Americans feel at least one earthquake per year. The US experiences about 20,000 earthquakes annually, with ~1,000 felt.
Annual Probability of Home Damage from Natural Disaster
About 5% of US homes sustain some damage from natural disasters each year, with severe weather and flooding being the most common causes.
Annual Probability of Wildfire Evacuation
About 1-2 million Americans are ordered to evacuate due to wildfires each year, predominantly in the western US.
Annual Probability of a Billion-Dollar Tornado Outbreak
About 80% of years feature at least one tornado outbreak causing $1 billion+ in damage. Average annual tornado damage exceeds $5 billion.
Annual Probability of a Major Hurricane Making US Landfall
About 40% of Atlantic hurricane seasons feature at least one major hurricane (Category 3+) making US landfall.
Annual Probability of a Tornado Hitting a School
About 40-50 schools are struck by tornadoes each year in the US, with most damage occurring in the central and southern states.
Probability of Dying from a Volcanic Eruption in the US
The estimated lifetime odds of dying from a volcanic eruption in the US are approximately 1 in 500,000, concentrated in Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest.
Probability of Dying in a Flood
The lifetime odds of dying in a flood are approximately 1 in 11,684. Flooding is the most common natural disaster in the US.
Probability of Dying in a Hurricane
The lifetime odds of dying in a hurricane in the US are approximately 1 in 106,827, though storm surge accounts for nearly half of fatalities.
Probability of Dying in a Tornado
The lifetime odds of dying in a tornado in the US are roughly 1 in 60,000. Tornado Alley states face the highest risk.
Probability of Dying in a Tsunami in the US
The estimated lifetime odds of dying in a tsunami in the US are roughly 1 in 2 million, with highest risk along the Pacific Northwest coast.
Probability of Dying in a Wildfire
The lifetime odds of dying in a wildfire are approximately 1 in 90,000, though risk has been increasing in western states.
Probability of Dying in an Earthquake
The lifetime odds of dying in an earthquake in the US are about 1 in 136,858, though risk is much higher in seismic zones like California.
Probability of Living in a Flood Zone
About 13% of US properties have substantial flood risk, but only 4% of homeowners carry flood insurance.
Tornado Fatality Risk in Mobile Homes
Mobile home residents are about 15 times more likely to die in a tornado than residents of permanent structures.