Annual Probability of a Major Hurricane Making US Landfall

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 each year. On average, the Atlantic produces about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) per season. About 40% of seasons include at least one major hurricane making landfall in the United States. About 3 hurricanes of any strength make US landfall per year on average.

The Gulf Coast and Southeast Atlantic coast face the highest landfall risk. Florida has the most hurricane landfalls historically, followed by Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. The costliest US hurricanes include Katrina (2005, $186 billion), Harvey (2017, $148 billion), and Ian (2022, $112 billion in 2022 dollars).

Climate change is affecting hurricane characteristics: while the total number of storms may not increase significantly, research suggests that the proportion of storms reaching major hurricane intensity is increasing, rainfall rates are higher (about 10% more precipitation for a given storm), and rapid intensification events are becoming more common. Storm surge is the leading cause of hurricane deaths. NOAA and the National Hurricane Center provide forecasts with a 5-day track cone and intensity predictions, with track accuracy improving by about 50% over the past 20 years.