Weather & Environment
Probabilities of lightning strikes, extreme weather events, and environmental hazards.
15 probabilities in this category
Annual Probability of Being Under a Boil Water Advisory
About 5% of Americans are affected by a boil water advisory in a given year, typically after storms, water main breaks, or treatment failures.
Annual Probability of Being Within 500 Feet of a Lightning Strike
About 5% of Americans are within 500 feet of a lightning strike in a given year. The US sees about 25 million cloud-to-ground strikes annually.
Annual Probability of Extended Power Outage
About 30% of US electricity customers experience at least one power outage lasting 1+ hours per year, with weather as the leading cause.
Annual Probability of Lightning Damage to Your Home
About 1 in 500 homes are struck by lightning each year, causing about $1 billion in property damage in the US.
Annual Probability of Receiving a Severe Weather Warning
About 75% of Americans receive at least one severe weather warning (thunderstorm, tornado, flood, winter storm) per year.
False Alarm Rate for Tornado Warnings
About 75% of tornado warnings are false alarms (no tornado occurs). The hit rate has improved from about 10% in the 1980s to 25% today.
Probability of Being Struck by Lightning (Lifetime)
The lifetime odds of being struck by lightning (not necessarily fatally) are about 1 in 15,300 in the US. About 90% of victims survive.
Probability of Death Attributable to Air Pollution
Air pollution contributes to approximately 100,000-200,000 premature deaths in the US annually, or roughly 3% of all deaths.
Probability of Dying from Extreme Heat
Extreme heat kills more Americans than any other weather event, with lifetime odds of about 1 in 8,248. Heat deaths are rising with climate change.
Probability of Dying from a Lightning Strike
The lifetime odds of dying from a lightning strike in the US are about 1 in 138,849, though being struck (and surviving) is more likely.
Probability of Dying from a Winter Storm
Winter storms cause an average of about 470 deaths per year in the US, from hypothermia, carbon monoxide poisoning, and overexertion.
Probability of Living in an Area with Severe Drought
In a typical year, about 20% of the US land area experiences moderate to severe drought conditions.
Probability of Property Being Damaged by Hail (Annual)
Approximately 1 in 149 insured homes experiences a hail damage claim each year, with the highest risk in central US states.
Probability of a Tornado Hitting Your House (Annual)
The annual probability of a tornado directly striking any given point in the US is roughly 1 in 22,000, much higher in Tornado Alley.
Probability of a White Christmas
On average about 22% of US weather stations record at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25, varying from 0% to 100% by location.