Probability of a White Christmas
22% average across US
Annual probability in US
On average about 22% of US weather stations record at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25, varying from 0% to 100% by location.
The probability of a white Christmas (defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on December 25) varies enormously across the United States. The NWS historical data shows that about 22% of US stations average a white Christmas, with certainty near 100% in northern states like Minnesota and Maine and near 0% in southern states.
Cities with the highest white Christmas probabilities include Fairbanks (99%), Minneapolis (75%), Denver (43%), Chicago (40%), and Boston (25%). Southern cities like Miami (0%), Houston (0%), and Atlanta (<1%) almost never see snow on Christmas. Climate change has been reducing snow cover across much of the country, modestly lowering white Christmas probabilities over time.
The definition matters: the NWS measures snow depth on the ground, not whether snow is falling. A location could have snow falling on Christmas Day but not meet the threshold if it melts on contact. Conversely, snow from a storm days earlier can provide a white Christmas even under sunny skies on December 25.
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